15.04.24 - 19.04.24
Results of the previous week
| AMC +27.60 | COCOA +10.77% | NG +2.25% |
HO -5.50% | VIX -4.41% | NQ -3.44% |
Last week, US stock indices declined. A correction was long overdue, but in addition to technical factors, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has put pressure on stock indices. The conflict continues, reducing interest in risky assets. In addition, the Fed hasn't yet expressed its readiness to start monetary easing, which is also unfavourable for stock indices.
The currency market recorded mixed dynamics. On the one hand, against the backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions, the dollar seemed quite confident amidst expectations that the US Federal Reserve is in no hurry to cut interest rates. On the other hand, some macroeconomic reports disappointed. For example, the number of building permits issued fell more than expected (-4.3% against a forecast of -0.7%). Secondary housing market sales also decreased. All of this is holding back the dollar's rise.
Brent oil prices showed very high volatility but are declining overall at the end of the week to around $86.00 per barrel. Tensions in the Middle East are provoking a short-term surge in demand. The energy resource is experiencing pressure from the increase in US crude oil reserves, as well as the fact that the Federal Reserve is ready to keep interest rates high, which supports the dollar and puts pressure on dollar-denominated assets.
Key events of the current week
The UK. Services PMI | DATE 23.04 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The UK's GDP declined year over year, reflecting the difficult situation in the UK economy. The indicator's downward movement was provoked by higher oil prices, changes in supply chains and the high interest rate set by the Bank of England, which tightened monetary policy in order to cope with rising inflation. In this context, services PMI has also, although it is still above the 50 mark. The indicator's decrease is bad news for the British pound. If this trend continues, it could cause GBP/USD to decline further towards 1.2300. | |||||
The US. Durable goods orders | DATE 24.04 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Durable goods orders reflect the number of new orders placed with producers for goods that last at least three years. This indicator is a good reflection of the general public's readiness to make big purchases. It also makes it possible to assess the prospects for national producers. Global analysts forecast that the indicator will decline in the reporting period. That's unfavourable for the US economy and the US dollar. In this scenario, the USD/JPY pair could return to 155. | |||||
The US. GDP growth rate | DATE 25.04 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Despite the Fed's high interest rate, the US economy is showing signs of resilience. However, according to forecasts from global analysts, Q1 2024 results could show GDP growth rates slowing from the previous quarter's 3.4% to 2.8%. The slowdown in economic growth is a worrying signal that could lead the US Fed to consider cutting rates sooner despite relatively high inflation. These factors are bad news for the US dollar, although a weaker dollar is favourable for dollar-denominated assets, such as gold. In this environment, XAU/USD may resume its move to previously established highs around 2430.00. | |||||
